Author Topic: The STS program may be extended by two more years...  (Read 49145 times)

schmidtrock

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #75 on: April 16, 2010, 02:05:24 AM »
Too expensive. What is needed is innovation. New stuff and a restructured NASA. Old technology and structures won't go anywhere.

LOL! Ok I'll bite. How old is Soyuz technology Moonwalker?

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #76 on: April 16, 2010, 02:16:41 AM »
...
Of course they will think that way. And its their right. But it's a kind of business. You can decide between keeping a big job program and losing capability if not increasing budget, or cut jobs, restructure the program and gain capability.
...
Which is the result of operate something on its final breaths under huge efforts and additional huge costs in order to fulfill an assignment (assemble the ISS). Apollo also was costly and the Shuttle development was costly as well and suffered from some significant issues. The result was a 6 years gap between Apollo and STS.
...
History does not repeat, but sometimes it looks similar. This time they at least realize that not only programs, but also NASA has to change.

The cause-> effect chain of events that you describe are still speculations designed to prove your point. So what if Apollo was costly? So what if STS was costly? Exploration is costly! Exploration is chronically over-budget, because exploration and its results cannot be foreseen with the precision of a Swiss watch. Exploration budgets are mere guidlines to keep over-enthusiastic scientists at bay - unlike clueless politicians of course. You're repeating this "costly" thing over and over. Get over it - it doesn't hold water. If every costly exploration would be canceled or "restructured" every time it goes over budget that some shortsighted bean-counter decided on, we'd go nowhere.

And calling this a "restructure" is a gross understatement - it's a decapitation and castration of NASA - nothing more, nothing less, and it will cost Obama in the long run, no doubt about it! NASA has been restructured many times - what gives you the assurance that this "restructure" will be better?

You too are falling for the cheap "CHANGE" slogan that moved so many clueless masses during the last elections. Voting for "change" without knowing the substance behind it, is irresponsible, as many realize it now as Obama' popularity drops steadily and surely. You know who shouts "The King is dead, long live the new King" <g>

Not convinced by your claims, but still amused at the energy you invest in trying to shape reality according to your beliefs.

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simking

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #77 on: April 16, 2010, 02:28:44 AM »
It has nothing to do with it was not built here I dont trust the Russian program simple their more outdated than us they have lost way more astronauts than us they care about $$$$ thats all not safety its all about $$$ to them.if a group gave them 10x more $$ to blow that souez up on the pad they would and say it was something faulty or an accident.(yes my opinion just how i feel sorry) let ANY other European agency launch our people i would feel better, Germany, France,japan,UK just NOT Russia of other than the middle east Russia always has been a threat mostly due to they will do anything for a quick buck because their broke.Even now today right now we spy on each other STILL..so no i feel the USA steps lightly around them lets not forget I am talking about the governments NOT individual people.What ever happens I just hate we are loosing our shuttle and our system to get our men and women up and down.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2010, 02:31:46 AM by simking »
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schmidtrock

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #78 on: April 16, 2010, 02:29:50 AM »
...
Of course they will think that way. And its their right. But it's a kind of business. You can decide between keeping a big job program and losing capability if not increasing budget, or cut jobs, restructure the program and gain capability.
...
Which is the result of operate something on its final breaths under huge efforts and additional huge costs in order to fulfill an assignment (assemble the ISS). Apollo also was costly and the Shuttle development was costly as well and suffered from some significant issues. The result was a 6 years gap between Apollo and STS.
...
History does not repeat, but sometimes it looks similar. This time they at least realize that not only programs, but also NASA has to change.

The cause-> effect chain of events that you describe are still speculations designed to prove your point. So what if Apollo was costly? So what if STS was costly? Exploration is costly! Exploration is chronically over-budget, because exploration and its results cannot be foreseen with the precision of a Swiss watch. Exploration budgets are mere guidlines to keep over-enthusiastic scientists at bay - unlike clueless politicians of course. You're repeating this "costly" thing over and over. Get over it - it doesn't hold water. If every costly exploration would be canceled or "restructured" every time it goes over budget that some shortsighted bean-counter decided on, we'd go nowhere.

And calling this a "restructure" is a gross understatement - it's a decapitation and castration of NASA - nothing more, nothing less, and it will cost Obama in the long run, no doubt about it! NASA has been restructured many times - what gives you the assurance that this "restructure" will be better?

You too are falling for the cheap "CHANGE" slogan that moved so many clueless masses during the last elections. Voting for "change" without knowing the substance behind it, is irresponsible, as many realize it now as Obama' popularity drops steadily and surely. You know who shouts "The King is dead, long live the new King" <g>

Not convinced by your claims, but still amused at the energy you invest in trying to shape reality according to your beliefs.

/Admin

BRAVO! That was incredibly well said thank you! I wish I was so eloquent.

simking

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #79 on: April 16, 2010, 02:48:25 AM »
Also  if it all becomes private start opening your wallet to have your GPS work or access to that google map at least if tax payer money is used its for the public make it private company guess what THEY own it. Nasa has given us more that most other agency's in the way of science and space exploration if private company can do it cheaper and better where are they? other than space X and their small time still if its so cheap and easy their should be all sorts of company's right now ready with out Nasa we would still be looking up wondering whats their "this whole situation is the administration talks a lot about a lack of Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) graduates from colleges. Yet when given the opportunity to put money towards projects that get people excited about these fields decides to cut them. It's no wonder why the US will continue with the brain drain as it outsources NASA to Russia, India and China." I took that from another post he said it well i feel the same how much is blown on the wars and what benefit are we getting from that other then my brothers in the forces killed? Obama had a chance to become a hero but today came out a Zero and took the space program with him.
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schmidtrock

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #80 on: April 16, 2010, 03:49:17 AM »
O.K. After reading this statement from Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, I stand possibly moved a bit and open minded. I'm still skeptical of an aerospace plan brought forth by a man barely qualified to be president, much less bringing forth a major sweeping new focus for an organization like NASA. Regardless, and this is my opinion only so don't shoot me, I still think mistakes have been made today that will be costly in the short term versus the long term. In regards to manned space flight by the US of course.

At any rate, I wouldn't expect Elon to be less than exuberant with today's speech by the POTUS, seeing as how his company has the first and most lucrative contract with NASA for developing systems.

Statement from Elon Musk


The Apollo Moon landing was one of humanity's greatest achievements. Millennia from now, when the vast majority of the 20th century is reduced to a few footnotes known only to erudite scholars of history, they will still remember that was when we first set foot upon a heavenly body. It was a mere 66 years after the first powered airplane flight by the Wright brothers.

In the 41 years that have passed since 1969, we have yet to surpass that achievement in human spaceflight. Since then, our capability has actually declined considerably and to a degree that would yield shocked disbelief from anyone in that era. By now, we were supposed to have a base on the Moon, perhaps even on Mars, and have sent humans traveling on great odysseys to the outer planets. Instead, we have been confined to low Earth orbit and even that ends this year with the retirement of the Space Shuttle.

In 2003, following the Columbia accident, President Bush began development of a system to replace the Shuttle, called the Ares I rocket and Orion spacecraft. It is important to note that this too would only have been able to reach low Earth orbit. Many in the media mistakenly assumed it was capable of reaching the Moon. As is not unusual with large government programs, the schedule slipped by several years and costs ballooned by tens of billions.

By the time President Obama cancelled Ares I/Orion earlier this year, the schedule had already slipped five years to 2017 and completing development would have required another $50 billion. Moreover, the cost per flight, inclusive of overhead, was estimated to be at least $1.5 billion compared to the $1 billion of Shuttle, despite carrying only four people to Shuttle's seven and almost no cargo.
The President quite reasonably concluded that spending $50 billion to develop a vehicle that would cost 50% more to operate, but carry 50% less payload was perhaps not the best possible use of funds. To quote a member of the Augustine Commission, which was convened by the President to analyze Ares/Orion, “If Santa Claus brought us the system tomorrow, fully developed, and the budget didn't change, our next action would have to be to cancel it,” because we can't afford the annual operating costs.

Cancellation was therefore simply a matter of time and thankfully we have a president with the political courage to do the right thing sooner rather than later. We can ill afford the expense of an “Apollo on steroids”, as a former NASA Administrator referred to the Ares/Orion program. A lesser President might have waited until after the upcoming election cycle, not caring that billions more dollars would be wasted. It was disappointing to see how many in Congress did not possess this courage. One senator in particular was determined to achieve a new altitude record in hypocrisy, claiming that the public option was bad in healthcare, but good in space!

Thankfully, as a result of funds freed up by this cancellation, there is now hope for a bright future in space exploration. The new plan is to harness our nation's unparalleled system of free enterprise (as we have done in all other modes of transport), to create far more reliable and affordable rockets. Handing over Earth orbit transport to American commercial companies, overseen of course by NASA and the FAA, will free up the NASA resources necessary to develop interplanetary transport technologies. This is critically important if we are to reach Mars, the next giant leap in human exploration of the Universe.

Today, the President will articulate an ambitious and exciting new plan that will alter our destiny as a species. I believe this address could be as important as President Kennedy's 1962 speech at Rice University. For the first time since Apollo, our country will have a plan for space exploration that inspires and excites all who look to the stars. Even more important, it will work.
–Elon–

http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20100415

For the record, I cannot stand Obama nor his audacity and ego. Let's not even get into his meager qualifications to hold the office he does. Meh.

Moonwalker

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #81 on: April 16, 2010, 05:17:01 AM »
Not convinced by your claims, but still amused at the energy you invest in trying to shape reality according to your beliefs.

You obviously do not seem (or don't want) to realize the situation NASA and STS was facing for many years already, which has become reality (non-shaped). The retirement of STS and the cancellation of Constellation are logical results of well known structural and political issues. I can not do more than mention the facts and situation, just like Bolden, Obama, Augustine and all the others also can not do more than mention the situation. I will finally stop doing so at this point and accept that this is a place of Space Shuttle fans where mentioning certain sad circumstances might not be appreciated and/or understood well enough.

I dont trust the Russian program simple their more outdated than us they have lost way more astronauts than us

You do not trust them because your thinking seems to be based on belief/preconception rather than on knowledge and interest.

If we would talk about ground staff: Russia has lost many due to rocket faults. If we talk about astronauts: Russia has lost less (not way more) than the USA: 5 (on Soyuz). The USA has lost 17 astronauts (3 on Apollo, 14 on STS). Russia has not lost any astronauts for 39 years. The USA has lost 14 astronauts within the last 24 years due to mismanagement and design flaws of the Space Transportation System.

The Soyuz rocket and spacecraft are being constantly updated (not outdated). The latest Soyuz TMA spacecraft technology is about 8 years of age. The next one is going to be the Soyuz TMAT. The very latest Soyuz launch vehicle will be operated by ESA at Kourou.

Regarding your post you trust Germany, France, and UK, i.e. ESA. So you should be aware that ESA trusts Russia as an absolutely worthy partner (just like NASA does as well). ESA officially calls Soyuz the most reliable manned system, based on hard historical data. It is also the most used manned system. The Proton is one of the most successful unmanned boosters (more than 350 launches). Soyuz and Proton are both part of the ISS program because of the mentioned reasons. Beside NASA, Russia is the second biggest cooperation partner of the ISS program. Soyuz won't stop being reliable after 39 years just because STS will be retired.

if private company can do it cheaper and better where are they?

Still hugely integrated into the expensive NASA structure.

Commercial space flight does not mean that companies start to sell rockets to private people. It does mean a different, more efficient way of distributing money. The European Arianespace is a working example. It operates the Ariane rocket. The yearly sales is more than a billion USD. SpaceX is another working example. The development cost of the Falcon 9 including the Dragon capsule is only 400 million USD. Wouldn't work at NASA with such low costs because of the massive jobs and structure.

Greggy_D

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #82 on: April 16, 2010, 06:14:36 AM »
The STS program is not and will not be extended.  There are NO extra external tanks to use for another two years.  AND it would take another 2 to 3 years to ramp to build any new ETs.

simking

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #83 on: April 16, 2010, 06:41:35 AM »
OK moon walker you win all hale moonwalker the space expert no man knows more and I elect you to run Nasa :P as i said before my PERSONAL OPINION ok i was wrong about the # of deaths i will admit but 90% was OPINION and personal feelings.i really don't think it will matter next president will has his own plan and we will start all over.I suspect america will be grounded at least till my grandkids are my age.
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schmidtrock

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #84 on: April 16, 2010, 07:01:16 AM »
OK moon walker you win all hale moonwalker the space expert no man knows more and I elect you to run Nasa :P as i said before my PERSONAL OPINION ok i was wrong about the # of deaths i will admit but 90% was OPINION and personal feelings.i really don't think it will matter next president will has his own plan and we will start all over.I suspect america will be grounded at least till my grandkids are my age.

+1

I'm pretty tired of reading the rhetoric.

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #85 on: April 16, 2010, 11:55:09 AM »
You obviously do not seem (or don't want) to realize the situation NASA and STS was facing for many years already, which has become reality (non-shaped). The retirement of STS and the cancellation of Constellation are logical results of well known structural and political issues. I can not do more than mention the facts and situation, just like Bolden, Obama, Augustine and all the others also can not do more than mention the situation. I will finally stop doing so at this point and accept that this is a place of Space Shuttle fans where mentioning certain sad circumstances might not be appreciated and/or understood well enough.

Well, in return, you obviously can't convince me/some of us because you're re-using the same arguments over and over, some irrelevant, some out of context and some even agreeing to mine, but all resulting in YOUR logical conclusions. You even make false/distorted claims about my reasons for holding to my opinions. You claim that this happens because we basically are STS fanboys. Well this may be easy for you to think, but superficial, insulting and a bit arrogant, if I may say so. You're basically saying that I/we are too s****d to see the "big picture" because we are in love with the Shuttle. At least in my case, this is far from the truth. I've said it too many times here that the STS closure is logical, and also necessary technologically (fatigue, the ISS construction is finished, NOT COST, etc). Basically, the retirement of the STS is part of the initial STS schedule. STS had to be retired at some point anyway!

My main (almost only) complaint is that the US has no active, national and inspiring manned Space Exploration Program.  I hope that the commercial entities can eventually (like very soon!) provide a CHEAPER and SAFER space transportation alternative, but one thing is clear: they will never provide an alternative to exploration. And being dependent on ANYBODY, especially the Russians, is not a good thing. You cannot brush away political realities and present them as narrow-mindedness - that is irresponsible and dangerous, as history has been proving all the time. This won't work. Russia has a very long way to go to prove its reliability as, say, Germany did. If you have't noticed, Germany, like most European countries, is a proven US political ally, and beyond. Russia is NOT! On too many instances and situations, quite the opposite is true. You cannot discuss any kind of cooperation without taking this context into account. If you do, you're distorting and this is frankly beginning to annoy. Once you do this, all your other arguments and logic  become questionable, and generate reluctance.  

Live with it Moonwalker: the repeated arguments of cost, mistakes, etc. etc. are not convincing, and the logic acrobatics and convolutions don't hide the fact that you're
simply re-cycling. If you want to convince somebody - at least on this subject - avoid the Obama style, and bring relevant arguments and facts, do not try psycho-analyze others, dismiss them as simpletons guilty of a Shuttle fetish, and present them as incapable of grasping the grandeur of what YOU think is logical.

Give us some credit: with the right approach, people are more receptive, and maybe, just maybe, despite of your obvious knowledge, some of us may have more information and knowledge on the various subjects than you do.

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« Last Edit: April 16, 2010, 12:50:51 PM by Admin »
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schmidtrock

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #86 on: April 16, 2010, 12:10:30 PM »
/standing ovation!

Moonwalker

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #87 on: April 16, 2010, 05:03:16 PM »
Nobody has to believe me, or to be convinced by me. Without my existence and posts, the facts and figures are still there, politically, historically and technologically. Everybody can search for the corresponding informations and have a look. I won't mention those things anymore. Bolden has, Obama has, the Augustine Commission has, Elon Musk and countless other well qualified persons within the business have in relation to Constellation and the current NASA situation (for STS you just have to read and understand the Columbia investigation and conclusions and the history of the STS behind the curtain). It's up to everybody to either listen, look at it, agree and admit and be honest, or to ignore facts and complain about the right decisions at the right time for the sake to see NASA continuing to fail properly sustainable programs, as it does for decades. But beside those wise decisions to retire STS finally and cancel Constellation, NASA still is politically forced to fail properly sustainable programs. The new HLV and Moon, Mars and asteroids goal will be another epic fail. Just lean back and wait until Obama leaves the office...

That's it ;)
« Last Edit: April 16, 2010, 05:08:38 PM by Moonwalker »

simking

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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #88 on: April 17, 2010, 09:42:32 PM »
My main (almost only) complaint is that the US has no active, national and inspiring manned Space Exploration Program.  I hope that the commercial entities can eventually (like very soon!) provide a CHEAPER and SAFER space transportation alternative, but one thing is clear: they will never provide an alternative to exploration. And being dependent on ANYBODY, especially the Russians, is not a good thing. You cannot brush away political realities and present them as narrow-mindedness - that is irresponsible and dangerous, as history has been proving all the time. This won't work. Russia has a very long way to go to prove its reliability as, say, Germany did. If you have't noticed, Germany, like most European countries, is a proven US political ally, and beyond. Russia is NOT! On too many instances and situations, quite the opposite is true. You cannot discuss any kind of cooperation without taking this context into account. If you do, you're distorting and this is frankly beginning to annoy. Once you do this, all your other arguments and logic  become questionable, and generate reluctance. 


Thats MY point exactly I never said it was wrong to retire STS I agree its costly just better than being without nothing. Nasa has a long road ahead..ok back to landing my shuttle..
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Re: The STS program may be extended by two more years...
« Reply #89 on: April 17, 2010, 10:34:26 PM »
Nobody has to believe me, or to be convinced by me. Without my existence and posts, the facts and figures are still there, politically, historically and technologically. Everybody can search for the corresponding informations and have a look. I won't mention those things anymore. Bolden has, Obama has, the Augustine Commission has, Elon Musk and countless other well qualified persons within the business have in relation to Constellation and the current NASA situation (for STS you just have to read and understand the Columbia investigation and conclusions and the history of the STS behind the curtain). It's up to everybody to either listen, look at it, agree and admit and be honest, or to ignore facts and complain about the right decisions at the right time for the sake to see NASA continuing to fail properly sustainable programs, as it does for decades. But beside those wise decisions to retire STS finally and cancel Constellation, NASA still is politically forced to fail properly sustainable programs. The new HLV and Moon, Mars and asteroids goal will be another epic fail. Just lean back and wait until Obama leaves the office...

That's it ;)

I reject your claim that if somebody does not agree with whatever you or Obama or whomever claims on the subject, is "dishonest" (at least that's how I read "It's up to everybody to either listen, look at it, agree and admit and be honest, or to ignore facts and complain..."). Previously you implied that these people (and some of us too) are narrow-minded, now "dishonest".

If this is what you say, then there are an awful lot of narrow-minded and/or dishonest people around the World/USA - some of them significantly more scientifically and Space Exploration endowed than either Obama or some members of the "August" Augustine committee and their political fanboys. Luckily, the Prez is extremely open minded (amphasis on "extreme"), but he will be "judged" by his voters. IMHO he's aiming for a one-term run anyway.

Now, after I've been indirectly labeled as narrow-minded, a Shuttle fanboy and dishonest, I can safely go back and play with my Shuttle  8)

/Admin
« Last Edit: April 17, 2010, 10:37:53 PM by Admin »
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