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Author Topic: Moon return plan 'is dead'  (Read 29525 times)
simking
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« on: January 30, 2010, 12:14:02 AM »

 Moon return plan 'is dead'

WASHINGTON - A PLAN to return US astronauts to the moon 'is dead', a White House adviser on space issues said on Friday, confirming reports that Nasa will instead focus on developing commercial space transport.

'Constellation is dead,' the source told AFP on condition of anonymity, referring to a programme that envisioned returning to the moon by 2020 and using Earth's nearest neighbor as a base for manned expeditions to Mars.

Florida Today newspaper first reported the demise of the program Thursday, saying the plan was doomed by financial constraints in the 2011 budget President Barack Obama is to present to Congress on Monday.

Reports added that the US space agency will work on finding a commercial solution to ferrying US astronauts to the International Space Station after the scheduled end of Nasa's shuttle program in September 2010.

Astronauts will be able to hitch rides aboard Russian Soyuz spacecraft, but the United States will need a commercial alternative if Congress approves White House plans to scrap development of a successor to the shuttle program.

The administration reportedly plans to hike Nasa's budget by US$5.9 billion (S$8,26 billion) over five years to boost commercial development, with the goal of a first commercial flight to the ISS launching by 2015, the source said. The Constellation programme was launched in 2004 by then-president George W. Bush. -- AFP

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/TechandScience/Story/STIStory_484185.html
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2010, 02:42:33 PM »

Hmm... Did anyone say " I told you so, and this is no rumor or speculation." ?

Of course, this is still " an anonymous Washington source", but still... A few more hours until the is out officially. Anyway, NASA is already acting according to these new directives.

/Admin
« Last Edit: January 30, 2010, 02:48:19 PM by Admin » Logged

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Moonwalker
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« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2010, 02:47:52 PM »

Congress has the final words I guess Wink

Bear in mind that Obama already is going to fail with his health care reform...
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2010, 02:53:20 PM »

Now that's a progress, Moonwalker: you switched to hoping from speculating Wink

Well I second you on that: I too hope that this Administration "can't" - "can't" kill the vision and the spirit of the US future in space.

But for now, the Administration's decision is firm. Only "the People" can change that.

/Admin
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Moonwalker
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2010, 04:57:18 PM »

Well, unless Obama tells anything and speaks to the congres, no decision is firm yet. We have to bear in mind that all the bad news originates from one Orlando Sentinel news article. Orlando Sentinel is comparable to FOX news Wink

All we do for now is to follow web based speculation. There is NOTHING official yet from Washington.


With the Sentinel’s article paraphrased and syndicated throughout the mass media and several other space sites, Constellation managers decided to act, informing the workforce on their official position.

“Orion Team: A few news bureaus and bloggers have been reporting on some major changes coming our way. Sometimes the number of reports gives the impression of validity when in fact they are all reporting on the same rumor,” noted Orion Project manager Mark Geyer, via one of several memos acquired by L2.

“I can tell you that I have not received any direction or information that would confirm what they are saying. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me to find out that there will be some changes announced next week and that they may be significant.


...

"As you know, media speculation continues on the President’s budget and its potential implications to NASA’s future. Please remember that the budget process is just that – a process – which may take many months... let’s stay focused on our mission and not let distractions, speculation or rumors affect our continued excellence, our commitment to safety or our care and concern for each other.”

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/01/maf-provide-positive-et-hardware-overview-for-early-sd-hlv-test-flight/
« Last Edit: January 30, 2010, 05:06:03 PM by Moonwalker » Logged
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« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2010, 01:30:48 PM »

Moonwalker,

You're saying nothing new and I don't really why you're trying to convince me that what I know is actually "speculation". From where you stand, it is, because you don't have first-hand quality "sources".

The difference is that I do.

I am not trying to convince you of anything either - I only state facts from my sources. You can believe my statements or not, but you cannot claim that what *I* know is "speculations". You see, I know my "sources" - you don't.

And of course (again) the decision taken by the Administration will have to go through a few votes before it gets implemented, and I surely don't know what that vote will be - IMHO nobody really knows.

My speculation for Obama's decision for the deep cuts into NASA is because now he's desperately looking for sources to finance his stillborn - the Health plan. But that too has to pass a few lobbies and votes so everything is still very fluid.

Try to make the difference between what I know about the Administration decisions and the chances of these decisions making it through the Congress and lobbies.

Have a great weekend,
/Admin

/Admin
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Moonwalker
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« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2010, 03:20:40 PM »

Well, you seriously claim to know as much as, or even more as NASA officials and program managers? Even they don't know anything yet they say. And we should not get confused by speculation going through the web they say as well. I guess there are exactly two people who know what's going on in detail: Obama and Charles Bolden, who is going to speak tomorrow. Did you have a phone call to one of them or with their consultants? Grin Just kidding Wink

But seriously, due to any repect I really have, we (the readers here) do have two choices now: to believe that you indeed have first first-hand sources, which must be comming directly out of the White House and from NASA managers in the headquarters in Washington; or to believe that you are referring to web sources just like anybody else, even including NASA program managers and officials. Do not take it too personally, but for now I tend to believe the second one Grin

Maybe you are referring to nasaspaceflight.com and the guys behind it like Chris Bergin? But even them have to rely on what they're told here and there I think. Nobody outside of the White House and closed NASA headquarters offices in Washington certainly does know more or as much as the persons behind the locked office doors.
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« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2010, 03:56:58 PM »

Well, you seriously claim to know as much as, or even more as NASA officials and program managers? Even they don't know anything yet they say. And we should not get confused by speculation going through the web they say as well. I guess there are exactly two people who know what's going on in detail: Obama and Charles Bolden, who is going to speak tomorrow. Did you have a phone call to one of them or with their consultants? Grin Just kidding Wink

But seriously, due to any repect I really have, we (the readers here) do have two choices now: to believe that you indeed have first first-hand sources, which must be comming directly out of the White House and from NASA managers in the headquarters in Washington; or to believe that you are referring to web sources just like anybody else, even including NASA program managers and officials. Do not take it too personally, but for now I tend to believe the second one Grin

Maybe you are referring to nasaspaceflight.com and the guys behind it like Chris Bergin? But even them have to rely on what they're told here and there I think. Nobody outside of the White House and closed NASA headquarters offices in Washington certainly does know more or as much as the persons behind the locked office doors.

I have no clue how much the "NASA managers and officials" you refer to, know. Which "NASA managers and officials" do you refer to exactly anyway and do you actually know how much THEY know, or you just speculate about that? The fact that they don't talk on forums does not necessarily mean that they don't know what is happening. With the jobs fluidity at NASA, they know better Smiley

No, in this particular case, my source is not with/at or connected to Nasaspaceflight. And since in this case I certainly cannot disclose who my sources are, you will need to speculate about them, or simply wait for the news once they break out. Nice try though Wink

/Admin
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« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2010, 04:08:55 PM »

I have no clue how much the "NASA managers and officials" you refer to, know. Which "NASA managers and officials" do you refer to exactly anyway and do you actually know how much THEY know, or you just speculate about that? The fact that they don't talk on forums does not necessarily mean that they don't know what is happening.

As I already have posted ->


Orion Project manager Mark Geyer:

"A few news bureaus and bloggers have been reporting on some major changes coming our way. Sometimes the number of reports gives the impression of validity when in fact they are all reporting on the same rumor.”

"I can tell you that I have not received any direction or information that would confirm what they are saying."


Former flight director Paul Hill who is now director of the Mission Operations Directorate of NASA:

"Although the uncertainty is frustrating and unnerving, try to not waste a lot of brain cells speculating and wringing your hands about all of the permutations."

"As you know, media speculation continues on the President’s budget and its potential implications to NASA’s future. Please remember that the budget process is just that – a process – which may take many months."

"Nothing has actually happened yet, whether that’s within NASA or in the White House as far as changing national space policy. Further, Congress will ultimately engage with the White House, and there will be some amount of iteration leading up to any final, new policy."


Those are reactions to the "speculations" (as they say) going on within the web.

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/01/maf-provide-positive-et-hardware-overview-for-early-sd-hlv-test-flight/
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« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2010, 04:27:05 PM »

I have no clue how much the "NASA managers and officials" you refer to, know. Which "NASA managers and officials" do you refer to exactly anyway and do you actually know how much THEY know, or you just speculate about that? The fact that they don't talk on forums does not necessarily mean that they don't know what is happening. With the jobs fluidity at NASA, they know better Smiley

No, in this particular case, my source is not with/at or connected to Nasaspaceflight. And since in this case I certainly cannot disclose who my sources are, you will need to speculate about them, or simply wait for the news once they break out. Nice try though Wink

/Admin
The problem with this is, we see mixed information, on one side: no one except  Obama and Bolden know what is going to happen. On the other side there is you, saying that your sources are good, but it is neither Obama nor Bolden.

Can you see our dilemma?
As long as you (Admin) can't say exactly how good your sources are, you might just as well be speculating.

Plus, the things you said still leave a lot of room for speculation, you did not tell us much besides "Things are going to change a lot, and I know". Still love you though. Grin

We'll just have to wait and see what is going to happen, I'd love for some U.S. HSF to be around in 2015.
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« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2010, 05:13:45 PM »

I have no clue how much the "NASA managers and officials" you refer to, know. Which "NASA managers and officials" do you refer to exactly anyway and do you actually know how much THEY know, or you just speculate about that? The fact that they don't talk on forums does not necessarily mean that they don't know what is happening. With the jobs fluidity at NASA, they know better Smiley

No, in this particular case, my source is not with/at or connected to Nasaspaceflight. And since in this case I certainly cannot disclose who my sources are, you will need to speculate about them, or simply wait for the news once they break out. Nice try though Wink

/Admin
The problem with this is, we see mixed information, on one side: no one except  Obama and Bolden know what is going to happen. On the other side there is you, saying that your sources are good, but it is neither Obama nor Bolden.

Can you see our dilemma?
As long as you (Admin) can't say exactly how good your sources are, you might just as well be speculating.

Plus, the things you said still leave a lot of room for speculation, you did not tell us much besides "Things are going to change a lot, and I know". Still love you though. Grin

We'll just have to wait and see what is going to happen, I'd love for some U.S. HSF to be around in 2015.

Nice try Dappa Smiley but for the record, I don't really care if anybody thinks I'm only speculating. And BTW, I said EXACTLY what will change - not "a lot" - you can refer to my first post on the subject on the Ares thread.

Following the subject of validity and truth of news, I reached the conclusion that many people (present company excluded) immediately reject or question any news which they don't like, and accept the news they actually WANT to be true, without ever questining the sources.

I've seen many reports - mainly generating in the Middle East, quoting unnamed "eye witnesses" reporting the so-called "atrocities" of one side, being accepted by hordes of gullible fools as unquestionable truth just because they side with the "witnessing" side, while immediately rejecting the official and verifiable reports from the other side, just because they hate it. I'm not naming names here, but this can be applied to ANY news and ANY subject - including this one.

So basically I am happy that people here question the quality of my information and source(s) and cross check with outher sources. This only proves the quality of the people frequenting our forum.

The only thing I can say is "wait and see" Smiley

And I still love you all - LOL!

/Admin
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« Reply #11 on: January 31, 2010, 06:11:14 PM »

I said EXACTLY what will change - not "a lot" - you can refer to my first post on the subject on the Ares thread.

Yes. You said exactly, on January 27, what the meanwhile well known Orlando Sentinel article said, on January 27. All the web news and hysteria regarding Obama axing the moon missions, originates from that Orlando Sentinel article as even NASA mentioned this meanwhile Wink

Of course it might be a coincidence that you posted the "news" after the Orlando Sentinel article had been published. If it was not a coincidence, then your source should be exactly the same source as of the Orlando Sentinel article: White House insiders. Or you know somebody who knows White House insiders. Or, the most likely case in my point of view, just like anybody else you are referring to web sources like Orlando Sentinel and all the follow ups that have been generated since then.

You are teasing us once again Admin Grin

Just kidding  Wink
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« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2010, 09:20:31 PM »

Truth is that I saw the Orlando sentinel link after I posted my news. I thought that the time to tell has come, but I was wrong. I have no clue where OS has its information, but I can tell you that based on the content, it is at least as reliable as mine, and the "leak" was done to influence Prez's decision - but that's a speculation of course.

And in this case, I am really not teasing anybody, because IMO this is a very serious subject. The fact is that I can't tell you who the source is regardless of how many times you throw the hook and regardless of the hook throwing style.

As for the officials you quote, again, you are inclined to believe them because it suits your speculation theory, but you ignore the fact that they still work at NASA and they have a lot to lose in case they blurb information which cam be linked to their names (before it's time) or they talk officially outside the company's official line, especially on this very sensitive subject.

So basically if you don't want to feel teased, stop probing, speculating and trying to fish for my source(s), and wait until the Prez reveals his plans officially.  It is inevitable and it's only a question of time - and we have plenty of that, don't we Wink

/Admin
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2010, 02:07:36 AM »

Just read this on the Beeb's website

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8489097.stm

It basically echoes that there is a 'rumour' about the possible 'Cancellation of Constellation'.

Personally, I think the private sector such be more involved in Humans in space, as the governments of the world do carry most of the brunt of the cost, maybe it's time to make space 'profitable'? Plus any Moon venture I think is going to be an international venture. Look at the ISS for instance.

I've just been reading about the Shuttle-C /  Shuttle-Derived Heavy Launch Vehicle program. In your humble opinions, would that of been a cheaper solution?
« Last Edit: February 01, 2010, 02:12:04 AM by desktopsimmer » Logged

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« Reply #14 on: February 01, 2010, 09:00:42 AM »

As for the officials you quote, again, you are inclined to believe them because it suits your speculation theory,

I don't have a speculation theory. I'm just forced to follow the currently "official" speculation theory regarding NASAs budget and its future. My point is that as long as there are no official statements, and as long as we all here don't work for NASA (I guess) or for the US government (I guess even more), or as long as we don't know somebody in person who works for the US government or the NASA managament, we all have to rely on that currently "official" speculation theory until there are official statements available.

I've just been reading about the Shuttle-C /  Shuttle-Derived Heavy Launch Vehicle program. In your humble opinions, would that of been a cheaper solution?

I think that this would be the most safest and quickest available option to chose as a STS replacement. It is based on flight proven, reliable man-rated STS hardware that does not have to be developed, beside the side mout of course. And it offers to boost into space almost whatever you want: be it cargo for the ISS, satellites, or even an earth departe stage + a lunar lander, and of course Orion above all.

Here you get a nice video of that concept:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOnlAUpYWoc


And another great STS replacement would be DIRECT which even could make it into space really, rather than the Ares launchers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxcM03VvHdk
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